Winners & Losers: Watching the Data & the History

Every Friday morning, I join the Cardle & Woolley Show on Talk 1370 Radio in Austin to announce the week’s Winners & Losers. Amid the joys of this holy season and the machinations of the College Football Playoff bracket, here’s the list for this week:

WINNER: Paying Attention to History

White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles announced this week that President Donald Trump is going to be out campaigning like it was 2024. The president is also taking steps to regain the ground he has lost over the past few months. While you won’t hear it on Fox News, the president’s polling numbers are definitely down and any conservative pundit who tries to explain it away simply isn’t paying attention.

Conservatives often dismiss polling data because we are right on the issues and the Democrats and progressives are so very wrong, but being right isn’t always enough. We are in a fight of light over darkness—and to win, we cannot forget that.

In August, I voiced concerns about those who were saying that the progressive Democrat Party had been destroyed and conservatives would dominate for the next decade—even millennia. I wish that were true, but history tells us it isn’t. Here’s the snippet I wrote this summer that bears repeating today:

Unfortunately, the persistent cluelessness of Democrats has caused too many conservatives to prematurely pronounce them dead and even on the verge of extinction. But political terrain in America shifts quickly, and Democrats have been here before.

In 1972, Republicans defeated left-winger George McGovern in the biggest Republican landslide in history, but just four years later, a guy nobody had ever heard of, Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter, took the White House back for the Democrats. It was a sweet victory for the blue team, but then Ronald Reagan took Carter out after just one term and in 1988, when Reagan ran for re-election, he won 49 states.

Times were as bad for Democrats back then as they are now. They didn’t really have a leader. All their big guns stood down. Former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo (father of losing NYC mayoral candidate Andrew) was viewed as the Democrats’ strongest candidate, but he was afraid to run against George H.W. Bush.

However, there was this governor from the poor and tiny state of Arkansas whose only claim to fame was a disastrous speech delivered at the Democratic National Convention (his only applause line was “in conclusion”), who thought he could beat Bush. Clinton threw his hat in the ring and we know what happened from there.

It is dangerous to forget history.

Democrats may seem clueless right now, but they are not dead. Politics turns on a dime. Conservatives should remember 1972, 1976, 1992, and 2008. If we don’t pay attention, the Democrats will make the country pay some other way.

Just saying. Meanwhile, look who else made the Winners List this week:

WINNER: Jasmine Crockett Eight Points Up

I was wrong last week when I predicted that U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Dallas, would ultimately balk on a U.S. Senate run. She announced on Monday that she is definitely in, and the first public poll released this week conducted by Texas Southern University shows her up eight points over state Rep. James Talarico, D-Round Rock. Meanwhile, Colin Allred, who ran against Sen. Ted Cruz last time, and had been the frontrunner in the Democrat Senate primary race for a while, dropped out in the face of a Crockett candidacy.

According to the poll, African Americans are solidly behind Crockett, while Hispanics and Anglos are with Talarico. It is a long time until next March’s primary and even longer until the November election—where it is unlikely either one of them can defeat whomever the Republicans choose to run for the seat. But for now, the always hateful and frequently foul-mouthed Crockett is the face of the Democrat party in Texas—and that is a good thing for conservatives. Let’s hope she launches a speaking tour all over the state making fun of Gov. Greg Abbott for being in a wheel chair and talking about the need for open borders to bring more workers so black people won’t have to pick cotton.

WINNER: Amnesty International Finally Reports Hamas Oct. 7 Crimes

Amnesty International leans heavily left, but this week it finally reported that the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel targeted civilians and killed over a thousand people. Amnesty International also confirmed that the hundreds who were captured by Hamas were subjected to physical torture and sexual assault and violence.

This is certainly not news, but it is important since there are so many young Americans on college campuses who continue to believe that the attack didn’t happen, or if it did, it was somehow justified. The Amnesty International report echoes similar findings by the United Nations, making it harder for left-wingers in America to ignore.

LOSER: President Trump Moves to Legalize Pot

It probably should be no surprise that President Trump is said to be moving toward taking steps to legalize marijuana. He’s got his hand on the pulse of the country and 64% of Americans support legalizing pot (although that’s down from 70% in 2023).

As a boomer who lived through the golden age of marijuana—back when it was mild and cheap—it is hard to see how this is a good idea. The links to marijuana psychosis are terrifying, and too often link to mass shooters. Plus, in a time where so many young people are already wandering in the wilderness, why would we want to take steps to expand the use of a drug that reduces ambition and focus, and increases aimlessness?

There are many heroes who have been fighting for years against legalizing pot in Texas including Dr. Matt Poling, from College Station. Take a look at what he says here.

LOSER: Indigenous Peoples Scam

It looks like a Small Business Administration program designed to help “small disadvantaged businesses” is actually a scam that has resulted in billions in fraud and bribes to native tribes and other “disadvantaged groups” that partner with non-natives to do business. This report in Tribal Business News on the recent Senate hearing provides the long time line and scope of the scam. Here’s a telling quote from the Daily Wire report on the hearing:

“…there are skyscrapers down the street in Tyson’s Corner, [Virginia] defense contractors working on advanced weapons that don’t have to bid competitively for contracts because we say they’re Alaskan Native corporations. Every one of us in this room knows there are not Native Alaskans in those buildings … The scandal isn’t that there have been a few examples of abuse. The scandal is that it’s hard to find one that isn’t.” 

LOSER: Mid-Cycle Redistricting Map Wars

At this point it looks like the Trump strategy to increase GOP numbers in the U.S. House before next year’s mid-term elections appears to have fizzled after the state senate in Indiana voted against a proposed redistricting map last night. Even though Texas’ map was upheld in court last week, California’s map will likely also be upheld—making those five seats a wash for Democrats and Republicans. Looking at the current tally, Republicans could come out one seat ahead when all the smoke clears. That seems like a lot of squeezing for very little juice.

WINNER: Texas Economy Remains Strong

In some final data, this week’s reports show Texas sales tax receipts are up 5.4% over last year, the Texas oil and gas industry paid $27 billion in state taxes and royalties in 2025 and the Texas Workforce Commission reported the state has added 168,000 jobs this year. Winding down 2025 in the Lone Star State, that’s a lot of merry and bright.

Have a great weekend.

Sherry Sylvester is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, and the former Senior Advisor to Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick.

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